A Harvard-China Project Research Seminar with Shangwei Liu, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in the Belfer Center’s Environment and Natural Resources Program and the Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program at the Harvard Kennedy School

Abstract: In 2021, building operations in China accounted for approximately 2.2 gigatons of CO₂ emissions, representing 21% of the nation’s total emissions, from both direct fossil fuel consumption by households and indirect emissions from electricity and co-generation heating. This talk presents two projects on building sector decarbonization: one focused on supply-side clean energy technology deployment, and the other on demand-side efficiency improvements.
The first project evaluates short-term investment pathways (2020–2030) in China’s district heating sector, assessing their implications for CO₂ emissions, capital and operating costs. The analysis shows that expanding coal-based co-generation infrastructure risks significant carbon lock-in, both from heat and associated power production. As an alternative, we propose a city-level strategy to utilize industrial waste heat and air/ground-source heat pumps, which can mitigate the need for new coal co-generation plants.
The second project quantifies the potential for energy savings, emissions reductions, and cost-effectiveness of building envelope efficiency improvements in rural Chinese residential buildings. Results show that enhancing thermal insulation prior to heat pump installation significantly reduces both equipment size and operational costs, lowering the risk of reversion to coal heating. Shifting from fuel subsidies to building envelope subsidies is a win-win-win for rural households, local governments, and the environment.